巨灾险

STRATEGICOUTCOMESPRACTICETECHNICALADVISORYBULLETINApril2012www.1mpi.com

2012ATLANTICBASINSEASONALHURRICANEFORECASTWHENLESSISMORE

InformationobtainedthroughMarch

2012byDr.PhilKlotzbachandDr.

WilliamGrayatColoradoState

Universityindicatesthatthe2012Atlantic

hurricaneseasonwillhavelessactivitythan

themedian1981-2010season.

ThetropicalAtlantichasanomalouslycooled

overthepastseveralmonths,anditappears

thatthechancesofanElNiñoeventthis

summerandfallarerelativelyhigh.Asa

result,theyanticipateabelow-average

probabilityformajorhurricanesmaking

landfallalongtheUnitedStatescoastlineand

intheCaribbean.However,coastalresidents

areremindedthatitonlytakesonehurricane

makinglandfalltomakeitanactiveseason

forthem,andtheyneedtopreparethesame

foreveryseason,regardlessofhowmuch

activityispredicted.Predictionfor2012NamedStorms(NS)NamedStormDays(NSD)Hurricanes(H)HurricaneDays(HD)MajorHurricanes(MH)(Category3-4-5)MajorHurricaneDays(MHD)AccumulatedCycloneEnergy(ACE)NetTropicalCycloneActivity(NTC)1040416237075Average1260.16.521.323.992103%Seasonalupdatesoftheir2012AtlanticbasinhurricaneforecastswillbeissuedonFriday,June1andFriday,August3.Theywillalsobeissuingtwo-weekforecastsforAtlantictropicalcycloneactivityduringtheclimatologicalpeakoftheseasonfromAugust-October.Averi cationanddiscussionofall2012forecastswillbeissuedinlateNovember2012.Alloftheseforecastswillbeavailableonthewebat:www.1mpi.com.